Turbulence Then Climb: Gold Down $41 Yesterday, Up 1% Today — Fed Meeting Is the Next Waypoint
In aviation, turbulence is not a malfunction. It is the atmosphere doing what atmospheres do when pressure systems collide. Gold has been flying through exactly that kind of weather this week. Yesterday, Tuesday April 21, the metal dropped $41 to $4,763 as diplomatic optimism over US-Iran talks briefly cleared the air. This morning, Wednesday April 22, gold has climbed back near $4,755 — up roughly 1% — after Iranian forces attacked three commercial vessels in Gulf waters overnight and the Pakistan peace talks collapsed before they even began.
The pattern is consistent. Every time a ceasefire or negotiation creates the illusion of smooth skies, the metal dips. Every time reality reasserts itself — and in this conflict it has reasserted itself reliably — gold climbs back. The Strait of Hormuz remains contested. Oil prices are elevated near $90–$98 per barrel. Iranian maritime forces are still active. And President Trump has warned he will not extend the ceasefire without a deal, while no deal is within reach.
What adds a new layer to the cockpit this week is the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on April 28–29 — seven days away. The current cruising altitude for interest rates is 3.50%–3.75%, where it has been since March. Nobody expects that to change at this meeting. But every word of Chair Powell’s April 29 press conference will be analysed for what comes next. Will he signal that rate cuts could happen by June or July? Or will he say that oil-driven inflation makes cuts premature? Either way, the gold market will react sharply. This Thursday’s US PMI data and Friday’s Michigan inflation survey are the final instrument checks before the Fed flies us into April 29.
From a jewellery buyer’s perspective: gold at $4,755 is $840 per ounce below January’s all-time record of $5,595. The market is giving you a meaningful discount from the peak. Institutional forecasts — J.P. Morgan at $5,055, Goldman Sachs at $6,000 — suggest the ascent is not over.
Today’s prices: 24K — $152.93/gram | 22K — $140.19/gram | 18K — $114.70/gram All prices USD. Indicative at session open. Subject to change throughout the trading day.
