Cleared for Climb: Gold Surges 3% This Week as the Iran Turbulence Begins to Clear
In aviation there is a moment mid-flight when the worst turbulence passes and the aircraft breaks through into clear air. Gold had that moment this week. After months of being beaten down by the oil-inflation-rate headwind that the Strait of Hormuz war had generated, the metal found its altitude again — surging more than 3% on Wednesday alone and trading near $4,739 this Friday morning, its best level in nearly two weeks.
The break in the clouds came Tuesday May 5 when Trump paused “Project Freedom” — the US Navy’s Hormuz escort operation — and said “great progress” had been made toward an Iran peace deal. By Wednesday the reporting was specific: a one-page Memorandum of Understanding was being drafted, nuclear enrichment would halt, sanctions would lift, and the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Oil fell below $100 a barrel. The Dow crossed 50,000 for the first time. The machinery that had been suppressing gold — high oil → high inflation → high rates → strong dollar → lower gold — went into reverse simultaneously.
The week was not without turbulence. On Thursday both sides exchanged small incidents in the Strait, reminding markets that the deal is not yet signed, that Trump has simultaneously warned of “bombing at a much higher level” if Iran rejects the terms, and that the Hormuz situation remains fragile. Gold held its gains. The ceasefire is intact.
Now this morning the April Nonfarm Payrolls report arrives at 8:30 AM Eastern — the last potential turbulence of the week. This week’s ISM data showed manufacturing employment at a 2026 low of 46.4 while prices paid surged to 84.6. If the payrolls confirm labour market softening across the broader economy, the stagflation case firms up, rate cuts become more credible, and gold has a clear runway to continue its climb toward $4,800 and beyond. If the number surprises to the upside, gold may dip briefly — but the direction from this week has been set: up.
Fasten your seatbelt for 8:30 AM. After that, the skies should be clearer.
