Clear Skies Declared: The War Is Over, Gold Climbs to $4,325, and the Flight Path Is Open Again

For 107 days, gold flew through the worst weather of the entire bull market. The Iran war — a storm system that drove the metal from its January cruising altitude of $5,589 down to a seven-month low near $4,070 last week — has finally cleared. This weekend, the US and Iran reached a peace deal. Trump ordered the naval blockade lifted and the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Air traffic control has declared clear skies. Gold has begun to climb, reaching $4,325 this Monday June 15.

The storm that battered gold was unusual. Most wars create updrafts that lift gold higher on safe-haven demand. This war did the opposite — it created a downdraft, because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices up, which drove inflation up, which kept the Federal Reserve hawkish, which strengthened the dollar and pushed gold down. The aircraft was forced into a sustained descent it could not escape as long as the storm raged. Now the storm has cleared, and the same forces that pushed gold down are reversing into the updraft that lifts it.

Here is the new flight path. The Strait of Hormuz reopens. Oil — already down more than 6% last week, set to fall toward $80 — descends, taking inflation down with it. Last week’s CPI confirmed core inflation was rising just 0.2% month-on-month, so once the energy spike clears, inflation normalises quickly. The Federal Reserve, freed from its hawkish posture, can ease. The dollar weakens. And gold’s structural engines — record central bank buying, constrained mine supply, deteriorating global debt — finally provide clean, powerful thrust without the storm fighting them.

The instruments are pointing up. Gold has climbed more than $250 off last week’s low. The next waypoint is the 200-day moving average, then the $4,500 level, then the path toward Goldman Sachs’s $5,400 destination and J.P. Morgan’s $6,300. The FOMC meeting tomorrow, June 16–17 — the first under new Chair Warsh — is the next altitude check. If Warsh acknowledges the improving inflation outlook now that oil is falling, gold gets a powerful tailwind.

There is one note of caution on the radar. The peace deal, while reached, is not without fragility — Israeli-Hezbollah tensions flared over the weekend, and Israel is not a party to the agreement. Implementation will be watched. But the fundamental weather has changed. The storm that grounded gold for 107 days has cleared. The aircraft is climbing. The destination — and likely beyond January’s record — is back in range.

24K: $139.07/gram | 22K: $127.48/gram
All prices USD. Monday June 15 indicative.